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Vietnam and the End of the Multi-fibre Arrangement: A Preliminary View

国際協力論集

15(1)

93-107

神戸大学大学院国際協力研究科

2007-07

2007-09-19

Textiles and clothing (T&C) have been the archetypal 'starter' industries in industrialization. Following the examples of Britain in the 18th century and Japan in the 20th, many developing countries have stimulated their economic growth by becoming exporters of T&C. World trade in T&C was tightly controlled for the thirty years from 1974 under a series of international Multi-fibre Arrangements ('MFA's). Access to major markets-principally the US and the European Union-was restricted by annual quotas imposed on exporting countries, under which total exports in a series of tightly defined categories were limited to volumes specified by country. In 1994 as part of the 'Uruguay round' trade negotiations under GATT, a gradual phase-out of the MFA over a ten-year period was agreed. This was the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing ('ATC'), under which all quotas were to be abolished by the end of December 2004, with textiles and clothing being 'integrated' into the normal WTO rules governing trade. By restricting the exports of major garment and textile producers, particularly China, not only did the MFA seek to protect domestic producers in Western markets, but it also served to encourage producers in other developing countries to become new exporters. Now that the MFA/ATC is no more, a number of developing countries have become vulnerable to competition from China and other large producers such as India. This paper looks at the experience of Vietnam as a relatively new entrant to the global market. Vietnam is not as vulnerable (dependent on T&C exports) as some countries, since it has a relatively diversified export portfolio, but T&C exports are its largest manufacturing export. By considering the case of Vietnam, this paper hopes to provide partial answers to the question of how vulnerable countries can stay in the game, post-MFA, and-indirectly-whether T&C can continue to be drivers of export-oriented industrialization for new entrants to the global economy. Section1 now looks at the issue of vulnerability and further justifies the choice of Vietnam as a case study. Section2 introduces key characteristics of world T&C trade, including the role of global buyers and the pressures facing all producers. Section3 discusses the predictions about the impact of the end of the MFA and compares these to the initial outcomes. Section 4 concludes.

紀要論文