神戸大学附属図書館デジタルアーカイブ
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https://doi.org/10.24546/81001759
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2024-03-29
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81001759 (fulltext)
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81001759
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open access
出版タイプ
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タイトル
中国の国有企業改革と雇用調整速度の経年変化 ―状態空間モデルのベイズ推定―
チュウゴク ノ コクユウ キギョウ カイカク ト コヨウ チョウセイ ソクド ノ ケイネン ヘンカ ジョウタイ クウカン モデル ノ ベイズ スイテイ
その他のタイトル
China's Reform of State-Owned Enterprises and the Change of Their Employment Adjustment : A Bayesian Estimation of State Space Models
著者
著者名
橋口, 善浩
Hashiguchi, Yoshihiro
ハシグチ, ヨシヒロ
所属機関名
神戸大学大学院経済学研究科
収録物名
国際協力論集
巻(号)
17(2)
ページ
99-111
出版者
神戸大学大学院国際協力研究科
刊行日
2009-10
公開日
2010-01-06
抄録
After the start of China’s reform and opening up policy in 1978, Chinese economy has experienced rapid growth. The growth, however, has depended mainly on non state-owned enterprises(SOEs), and China’s SOEs have been operating at a loss and suffered from a redundant labor problem. Although the reform of SOEs should have been put in the central to China’s reform and opening up policy, it could not produce a desired result. Despite the fact that the reform of SOEs has been carried out since 1978, why did SOEs’redundant labor increase? Did the reform actually have an effect on their overmanning problem? In this paper, we focused on the speed of SOEs’employment adjustment for the redundant labor, and attempted to statistically verify whether the SOEs’reform contributed toward the speed up of the employment adjustment. As the statistical methods for our analysis, a state space model was constructed to allow the employment adjustment parameter to be time-varying, and it was estimated with the Bayesian method using long-term time series data(1953-2001)of China’s SOEs. The Bayesian posterior distribution was approximated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We also made the statistical test, which was proposed by de Jong and Penzer(1998), for the changes of the parameters. According to our empirical results, the speed of employment adjustment did not change significantly except for the period of the 1st five-year plan(1953-57). It seems that the SOEs’reform did not have the effect of accelerating the employment adjustment, and thereby their redundant labor did not decreased.
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経済学研究科
国際協力論集
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17巻
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17巻2号(2009-10)
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資源タイプ
departmental bulletin paper
言語
Japanese (日本語)
ISSN
0919-8636
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NCID
AN10418744
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関連情報
NAID
110007463620
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URI
http://www.research.kobe-u.ac.jp/gsics-publication/jics/
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