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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14094/90004766
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2024-04-26
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90004766 (fulltext)
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メタデータID
90004766
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open access
出版タイプ
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タイトル
Cost and time damping: evidence from aggregate rail direct demand models
著者
Daly, Andrew ; Sanko, Nobuhiro ; Wardman, Mark
著者名
Daly, Andrew
著者ID
A0695
研究者ID
1000000403220
KUID
https://kuid-rm-web.ofc.kobe-u.ac.jp/search/detail?systemId=c008f33ad0e0c4f0520e17560c007669
著者名
Sanko, Nobuhiro
三古, 展弘
サンコ, ノブヒロ
所属機関名
経営学研究科
著者名
Wardman, Mark
収録物名
Transportation
巻(号)
44(6)
ページ
1499-1517
出版者
Springer
刊行日
2017-11
公開日
2018-04-06
抄録
There is a significant body of evidence from both disaggregate choice modelling literature and practical travel demand forecasting that the responsiveness to cost and possibly to time diminishes with journey length. This has, in Britain at least, been termed 'Cost Damping', and is recognised in guidance issued by the UK Department for Transport. However, the consistency of the effect across modes and data types has not been established. Cost damping, if it exists, affects both the forecasting of demand and our understanding of behaviour. This paper aims to investigate the evidence for cost and time damping in rail demand using aggregate rail ticket sales data. The rail ticket sales data in Britain has, for many years, formed the basis of analysis of a wide range of impacts of rail demand. It records the number of tickets sold between station pairs, and it is generally felt to provide a reasonably accurate reflection of travel demand. However, the consistency of these direct demand models with choice modelling and highway demand model structures has not been investigated. Rail direct demand models estimated by ticket sales data indicate only slight variation in the fare elasticity with distance, as is evidenced in the largest meta-analysis of price elasticities conducted to date (Wardman in J Transp Econ Policy 48(3):367-384, 2014). This study of UK elasticities shows strong variation between urban and inter-urban trips, presumably a segmentation at least in part by purpose, but less remaining variation by trip length. A lack of variation by length supports the hypothesis of cost damping, because constant cost sensitivity would imply that fare elasticity would increase strongly with distance, because of the increasing impact of higher fares at longer distances. In this paper we indicate that rail direct demand models have some consistency of behavioural paradigm with utility based choice models used in highway planning. We go on to use rail demand data to estimate time and fare elasticities in the context of various cost damping functions. Our empirical contribution is to estimate time elasticities on a basis directly comparable with cost elasticities and to show that the phenomenon of cost damping is strongly present in ticket sales data. This finding implies that cost damping should be included in models intended for multimodal analysis, which may otherwise give incorrect predictions.
キーワード
Demand analysis
Rail demand
Model estimation
Cost damping
カテゴリ
経営学研究科
学術雑誌論文
権利
© The Author(s) 2016.
This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.
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資源タイプ
journal article
言語
English (英語)
ISSN
0049-4488
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eISSN
1572-9435
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関連情報
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-016-9711-9
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